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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Older Squad Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is rare to have nearly all player near a Test team being above thirty, except for young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test squad featuring a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a process that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the space of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the first Test, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a much more significant shift with two players absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

Sign up to The Spin

Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Unclear

The latter part of the contest may witness the main four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might experience transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the visiting team. You can sense that change approaching, rolling round the corner, and England ain’t seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.